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Idea to Traffic Pressure Test

How much would my site earn from AdSense?

Three ways to ask the same question: what your traffic is worth, what traffic your goal needs, and where the number actually comes from.

Ranges for the first two are measured on our own sites. The rest are general industry ranges, not our measurements.

Estimated monthly revenue

$10.00 to $40.00

Daily$0.33 to $1.33

Annual$120 to $480

A range, because RPM moves with niche, country, season and advertiser demand.

This calculator multiplies your monthly pageviews by an RPM, the revenue per 1,000 pageviews, to give a monthly earnings range. Reverse mode divides an income goal by the same RPM to show the traffic you would need. It uses ranges because RPM moves with niche, country, season and advertiser demand.

How the math works

The core formula is one line. Revenue equals pageviews divided by 1,000, multiplied by RPM, where RPM is the revenue you earn per 1,000 pageviews. Reverse mode rearranges the same line: pageviews equals your goal divided by RPM, multiplied by 1,000.

revenue   = pageviews / 1000 * RPM
pageviews = goal / RPM * 1000

Detailed mode breaks RPM into the things that actually produce it, which is useful when you want to know why a number is what it is rather than only what it is:

revenue = pageviews * ad units per page * CTR * CPC

Pageviews means pageviews, not sessions and not users. One visitor reading four pages is four pageviews and four chances to serve an ad. Reading sessions as pageviews is the single most common way people overstate their own traffic by a factor of two or three.

RPM is where the range comes from. Two figures on this page are ours: word games and puzzle utility tools at $0.50 to $2, and general utility and calculator tools at $1 to $4. Both are measured on live sites in our own network. The rest of the table, lifestyle at $3 to $8, tech and SaaS at $5 to $15, health at $8 to $20, and finance, insurance and legal at $15 to $40, are general industry ranges. We have not measured them and the page says so rather than dressing them up.

Ad units per page is a count, not a multiplier on revenue. Adding a fourth unit to a page with 300 words of content does not add a quarter to your earnings; it lowers the value of every impression and raises the chance of a policy problem. Google removed the hard three-unit limit in 2016 and replaced it with a judgement about whether ads outweigh content, which is harder to game and easier to fail.

CTR and CPC in detailed mode default to 1 percent and $0.35. Those are plausible starting points for a general utility site rather than measurements, so treat the detailed tab as a way to see how the levers interact, and the first tab as the one to quote.

Worked example from one of our sites

How to read your result

Take the bottom of the range as your working number. The top of an RPM band describes a site with mostly United States traffic, in season, in a niche advertisers are bidding hard on. A new site is usually none of those things.

In reverse mode, look at the larger of the two pageview figures. That is the traffic your goal needs if your RPM lands at the bottom of the band, which is where new sites land. If that number is more than about ten times your current traffic, the honest reading is that the goal needs a different niche or a longer timeline, and it is much cheaper to learn that now than after three months of writing.

What the result does not tell you

  • It assumes you are approved. Until AdSense approves the site, the correct figure is zero regardless of traffic.
  • It ignores the payment threshold. AdSense pays out once your balance reaches the threshold, so your first actual payment arrives well after your first earned dollar.
  • It ignores invalid traffic deductions. Google filters traffic it judges automated and does not pay for it. On sites with near-100 percent direct traffic and sessions a few seconds long, that gap between raw pageviews and paid pageviews is large.
  • It ignores country mix. Geography moves RPM more than almost anything else. Traffic from the United States is worth a multiple of the same traffic from a low-income market, and the single RPM band on this page cannot see the difference.
  • It assumes revenue is flat. Real small-site revenue is lumpy and seasonal, with advertiser budgets rising into the fourth quarter and falling in January.

Common mistakes

  • Using a finance RPM for a puzzle site. This is the big one, and it inflates the answer by a factor of twenty.
  • Entering sessions where the field asks for pageviews.
  • Assuming ad units scale revenue linearly, so four units earn twice what two do.
  • Quoting the top of the range to yourself and then treating it as the forecast.

Questions about estimating AdSense revenue

Is there a limit on how many ads I can put on a page?

Not a fixed number. Google removed the three-units-per-page limit in 2016. The rule now is that ads must not outweigh the content, which is why one well-placed unit on a thin page earns less than it costs you in review risk.

Why does this give a range instead of one number?

Because RPM is not a property of your site. It moves with the niche, the countries your visitors come from, the season and what advertisers are bidding that week. A single number would be a guess wearing a decimal point.

Where do the RPM figures come from?

The word games and general utility bands are measured on live sites in our own network. The other four are general industry ranges that we have not measured, and the page labels them that way.

Should I use pageviews or sessions?

Pageviews. One visitor reading four pages is four pageviews. Entering sessions instead will understate the result, and mixing the two up in the other direction is how people overstate their own traffic.

The reverse mode says I need 500,000 pageviews. Is that normal?

For a low-RPM niche, yes. At $1 per 1,000 pageviews, $500 a month needs 500,000 pageviews a month. That arithmetic is the most useful thing on this page, because it tells you to change the niche or the goal before you spend three months finding out.